8 · Financials
Unit economics, cash, break-even, scenarios, and where the money comes from
Chapter 8 · Generic
The seven-tab model from Module 18, summarised: unit economics at three price points, an 18-month cashflow with the lowest point marked, break-even, three scenarios. Then one paragraph on funding. The numbers live in the spreadsheet; this chapter only quotes them. Guide: the full plan §8.
Draft
All figures are the curriculum’s indicative defaults until the model has real quotes in it.
Unit economics.
| Per pair | $110 | $140 | $170 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landed cost | $45 | $45 | $45 |
| Multiple of landed | 2.4× | 3.1× | 3.8× |
| Returns, fees, packaging, shipping | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Contribution per pair | $45 | $73 | $101 |
$110 is below the 3× floor. The working price is $140.
The first cycle.
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Development and samples | $2,500 |
| First run, 200 pairs at $38 FOB | $7,600 |
| Freight, duty, clearance | $1,000 |
| Entity, trademark, web | $1,000 |
| Total out before the last pair ships | $12,100 |
That’s more than the $10k budget. Pre-orders cover the difference.
Cash. The lowest point is in week 18, when the bulk deposit and balance are paid, at −\(X]{.tbd}. It's covered by [\)X of founder money and $Y of pre-orders.
Break-even. Z pairs at $140, Z/200 = N% of the run.
Scenarios.
| Pessimistic | Expected | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sold in year one | 50% | 75% | 95% |
| Return rate | 25% | 18% | 12% |
| Freight vs quote | +30% | +10% | 0% |
| Cash at month 12 | — | — | — |
Funding. Founder savings of $X cover development, samples and the deposit. Pre-orders of N pairs cover the balance. No loans, no equity.
Decisions
| Decision | Current answer | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Currency of the plan | US dollars | Decided 2026-10-20 |
| Run size | 200 pairs | Default |
| Target FOB | $38 | Default |
| Retail price | $140 | Default |
| Founder money available | Unknown | Open |
| Pre-order target | Unknown | Open |
| Founder pay | $0 in year one | Default |
Questions for you
- How much of your own money can you put in, and how much of it can you afford to lose entirely?
- Is there other money available, such as family, a grant, a student or young-founder programme, or a prize?
- Do you have any real quotes yet, for a sample, a sole, or leather per square foot?
- Do you need to pay yourself anything in the first year?