25 · Post-mortem & V2

Week 26 · 25 hours

Objective

Extract everything learnable from cycle one, and turn it into a concrete, funded plan for cycle two.

Why it matters commercially

The first drop is tuition. Its value is almost entirely in what it teaches you about your product, your customer and your operation. Brands that survive are the ones that run this analysis honestly and act on it.

Core concepts

The numbers to compute

Pull real figures. No estimates, no rounding in your favour.

Product

• Final FOB, landed and delivered cost per pair, versus your Week 13 model
• Defect rate at goods-in
• Return rate, and the breakdown by reason
• Fit data: what proportion said true to size, and in which direction the errors ran
• Weight, and whether anyone commented on it

Commercial

• Units sold, by week, by size, by channel
• Sell-through percentage at 30 days and at the end of Week 26
• Average selling price achieved (after any discounts)
• Contribution margin actually realised, versus modelled
• Sizes that sold out and sizes that didn’t — versus your assumed size curve
• Customer acquisition: where did buyers actually come from?

Operational

• Days from PO to goods in hand, versus plan
• Number of sample rounds actually required
• Hours per order fulfilled
• Total spend against the $10k budget, by category

Cash

• Lowest cash point actually reached
• Cash available now for V2
• Outstanding liabilities

The questions to answer honestly

1. Is the product right? Look at return reasons and fit data, not at compliments.
2. Is the price right? Did it sell at full price? Did anyone say it was expensive, and did they buy anyway?
3. Is the size curve right? Which sizes are left?
4. Is the fit right? Which direction did the errors run, and is it a last problem or a size-guide problem? These have completely different fixes.
5. Is the factory right? Quality, communication, honesty about problems, willingness on the next order. Would you use them again?
6. Is the positioning right? Who actually bought? Was it who you designed for?
7. What did you spend that you shouldn’t have?
8. What was the real bottleneck? Money, time, audience, or knowledge?

The V2 decision

Based on the answers, choose one:

Situation	V2 move
Sold through well, fit good, factory good	Repeat and scale. Same shoe, more pairs, add the second colourway. The cheapest possible V2 — no new development
Sold well, fit problems	Same shoe, corrected last or grading. Fix fit before anything else. Fit problems compound
Sold slowly, product loved by those who bought	Audience problem, not product problem. Don’t redesign. Spend cycle two on reach and stockists
Sold slowly, lukewarm reception	Positioning problem. Revisit Module 20 before Module 7. Do not just make another shoe
Factory problems	Change factory before scaling. Never scale volume with a partner you don’t trust
Ran out of money	Smaller run, more pre-orders, or pause and earn. Pausing is a legitimate strategic choice, not a failure

The strongest V2 for most first cycles is the least exciting one: the same shoe, made again, better, in more pairs. Repeat production has no development cost, no tooling risk, a known cost and a known lead time — and you now have reviews, photographs and fit data. The temptation to design something new is strong and usually wrong.

The deferred list

Open your Module 10 deferred list. For each item ask: does the evidence from cycle one support doing this now? Most items will still be premature. A few will now be obvious.

Compounding what you built

Things you now own that you didn’t in Week 1, and which make cycle two dramatically cheaper:

• A factory relationship, and a track record with them
• A tech pack that works, and a last you understand
• Real fit data
• Photography, an identity, a store
• A customer list and reviews
• A trademark in process
• Cost, freight and duty knowledge that is now specific rather than theoretical
• Six months of documented process that is, itself, a brand asset

Cycle two should cost less, take less time, and sell more. That’s the whole thesis.

Do this

1 · Compute everything (8h). Every number listed above. In one document.

2 · Answer the eight questions (4h). Honestly, in writing, with the evidence for each answer cited.

3 · Factory review (2h). A frank written assessment. Then have a call with your factory: share what went well and what didn’t, ask what you could do better as a customer. This conversation is worth a great deal and almost no small brand has it.

4 · Customer interviews (4h). Talk to eight actual buyers. Why did they buy? What almost stopped them? What would they want next?

5 · The V2 plan (5h). Style, quantity, size curve, price, timeline, budget, funding source. One page, dated, signed.

6 · Update the curriculum (2h). Go back through your build log and write down the ten things you’d tell yourself in Week 1. This is both genuinely useful and excellent content.

Deliverable. A complete post-mortem document with every metric computed; written answers to the eight questions with evidence; a factory review plus a completed factory feedback call; eight customer interviews; a signed one-page V2 plan; a “ten things I’d tell myself in Week 1” piece.

Self-check

• What was your actual realised contribution margin versus modelled?
• Which sizes are left, and what does that say about your curve?
• Was your bottleneck money, time, audience or knowledge?
• What’s the cheapest possible V2, and why is it usually the right one?
• Would you use the same factory again, and why?

Traps

Skipping the post-mortem because you’re tired. You will be. Do it anyway — it’s where the value of the last six months gets converted into the next six.

Redesigning in response to slow sales. Diagnose first. Slow sales are more often a reach problem than a product problem.

Measuring success by sell-out. Measure it by: did you learn what you needed, did customers like the shoe, and do you have cash to go again?

Not going again. The compounding starts at cycle two. Cycle one is the expensive one.